India’s T&D Capex Boom: Top Indian Transformer Manufacturers in T&D Supercycle
India’s transmission and distribution ecosystem remains in the middle of a strong capital expenditure cycle, with high-voltage transformer manufacturers emerging as some of the key beneficiaries. Backed by the National Electricity Plan’s (NEP) estimated transmission investment opportunity of around INR9 trillion through FY32, the sector continues to offer a large and visible addressable market.
The current upcycle began around FY22-23 and has already translated into a sharp improvement in order books, revenues, and profitability for leading T&D equipment companies. While the first leg of the transformer capex cycle is already visible in reported numbers, industry conversations suggest that demand momentum could sustain for at least the next couple of years. A key reason for this optimism is that demand is not limited to India alone. Global markets are also facing a shortage of reliable transformer capacity, creating a meaningful export opportunity for high-quality Indian manufacturers.
NEP Creates a Large Domestic Opportunity
India’s NEP FY23–32 outlines a transmission investment roadmap of nearly INR9 trillion, driven by renewable integration, interstate transmission expansion and grid reliability. Even partial execution of NEP targets implies a sizable ordering opportunity. FY25 was strong, with 45+ transmission tenders awarded, including major High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) projects, representing ~INR1.5 trillion of project capex. Ordering moderated in FY26 to 16 schemes vs 45 in FY25, largely due to execution bandwidth constraints and high capacity utilization, rather than weak demand. The shift toward 400kV/765kV equipment also extends manufacturing and testing cycles, though new capacity additions over the next 1–2 years should support normalization.
HVDC Projects Add a High-Value Growth Layer
The growing share of HVDC projects is an important positive for transformer manufacturers. HVDC systems require specialized converter transformers and reactors, which are more complex and higher-value products compared with conventional equipment. Only a limited set of players has the technical capabilities to supply this equipment, including Hitachi Energy India, Siemens Energy India, GE Vernova T&D India, and BHEL. According to the NEP pipeline, India has outlined around 32.3 GW of HVDC capacity, of which approximately 14.5 GW has already been tendered and awarded. This creates a sizeable incremental opportunity for companies with proven credentials in high-voltage and HVDC equipment.
Market Share Remains Concentrated Among Leading Players
Based on FY25 order inflows, Hitachi Energy India held the largest market share among key transformer and T&D equipment suppliers, followed by Siemens Energy India and GE Vernova T&D India. GE Vernova and Hitachi Energy are likely to remain among the major beneficiaries of the ongoing transmission capex cycle, especially given their exposure to HVDC projects and high-voltage equipment. Their ability to participate in large, technically complex projects gives them an edge in a market where execution capability and product reliability are becoming increasingly important.
Export Opportunity Is Becoming More Meaningful
The global transformer market faces a major demand-supply gap, driven by renewable integration, data centres, industrial electrification, EV charging and ageing grid replacement in the US and Europe. Lead times have stretched to 2–4 years, increasing import dependence and creating a strong export opportunity for Indian manufacturers that meet quality, delivery and certification standards. India is also gaining relevance in global OEM supply chains, with recent India-Europe trade developments further supporting medium-term export growth.
Leading Indian transformer manufacturers are already responding to the demand surge. Companies such as Hitachi Energy, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, CG Power, Atlanta Electricals, and TARIL are expanding capacity, with the industry expected to add roughly 200-220 GVA over the next two to three years. Despite this upcoming supply addition, the demand environment remains favourable. As per CEA, transformation substation capacity in the 765kV segment is expected to triple by FY32-end. Domestic transmission capex, renewable integration, BESS deployment, and export demand should be sufficient to absorb incremental capacity without creating significant pricing pressure in the near term. Battery energy storage systems could also become an additional driver of equipment demand. India is targeting around 13.5 GW of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity by FY27 and approximately 51.5 GW by FY32, which should increase the need for supporting grid infrastructure.
Key Risks to Watch
The positive outlook is not without risks. Key concerns include semiconductor chip shortages, supply-chain disruptions, delays in tendering activity, challenges in scaling BESS deployment, and rising commodity prices, especially copper. Execution timelines will also be critical, particularly as manufacturers handle larger and more complex high-voltage orders.
Outlook
India’s T&D capex cycle remains one of the strongest structural themes within the power equipment space. The combination of domestic grid expansion, renewable integration, HVDC opportunities, BESS-led infrastructure demand, and export potential creates a multi-year growth runway for transformer manufacturers. While valuations leave limited room for disappointment, the earnings cycle still appears supportive. Quality players with strong technology capabilities, execution track records, and access to global markets are likely to remain the key beneficiaries of this capex upcycle.
