Nifty Down 8 Straight Weeks, US Yields Climbing & Why Boring Investing Wins Weekly Market Update + Live Q&A (Question & Answer) | Friday Investment Satsang

Yadnya Investment Academy | Parimal Ade (Host) · 3 Oct 2026

Session covers global macro developments (US bond yields, the US Federal Reserve, AI capex, crude oil), Indian market and economic indicators, an extended segment on financial planning and investor behaviour, and a live Q&A (Question & Answer) on lump-sum deployment, leverage, SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) patience, and sector views. Source: YouTube Live — Friday Investment Satsang, streamed 2 October 2026.

I. Global Macro Overview

US Bond Yields: Core Inflation at 3.4%, Fed (Federal Reserve) at 3.75%–4.00%

Parimal opened with the factor weighing most heavily on Indian markets: rising US bond yields. The root cause is inflation. The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) targets 2%, but core CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation has stayed persistently above 3% and now stands at 3.4%—1.4 percentage points above target. That left the Fed with no option but to hike, with the policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%. Parimal flagged that this is unlikely to be the only hike; the bond market is already discounting a series of them. Add a US economy growing at around 2.2% in Q2 (second quarter) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) terms, with strong consumer spending, and inflation has little reason to cool on its own. Longer-duration bonds—5, 10 and 30 years—are demanding a higher yield to compensate for that uncertainty.

US Debt: $40 Trillion Outstanding, $1.9 Trillion Deficit

On top of inflation sits a supply problem. US debt is approaching $40 trillion, this year's fiscal deficit alone is $1.9 trillion, and public debt is already above 100% of GDP. That deficit is funded by issuing more bonds. More supply means investors can demand higher yields before they buy—and they are demanding them. Parimal's read: sticky inflation, firm growth and heavy issuance are all pushing yields in the same direction.

The 20x Problem: Why India Is Falling Harder Than the US

The most common viewer question: if yields are rising, why is India falling while US equities hold up? Parimal answered with simple arithmetic. Take a US government bond yielding 5%, for illustration: 100 divided by 5 is a P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio of 20. When yields were near 0.5% in the Covid period, the same bond was priced at 200 times. Today the safest asset in the world is available at 20 times—the same multiple as Indian equities. For a global allocator, EM (Emerging Market) risk at that price is a hard sell. US equities escape the comparison because the top 7–10 US companies carry earnings growth expectations of 25–35% for the next few years. India, the most attractive market in 2024, does not offer that earnings growth today. His caution: yields this high alongside markets this high are normally not a good sign.

AI (Artificial Intelligence) Capex: The Free Cash Flow Machines Are Now Borrowing

Parimal flagged the pace of AI capex (capital expenditure) in the US as a risk in its own right. Companies that together generated around $600 billion of free cash flow have turned free-cash-flow negative and taken on roughly $200 billion of debt, a figure that could rise to $400 billion. Much of the spending is circular—these companies are each other's customers—so if even one of them pauses, the cascading impact could be very negative. He also pointed to chip makers holding back capacity despite having the cash to add it, a sign that they do not expect the boom to last. Parimal expects this capex cycle to run for at least another one to two years, after which the questions will turn to ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) and how the spending gets monetised. This is not fear-mongering, he stressed—it is a factor that will weigh heavily in the coming quarters.

Crude Oil & Geopolitics: All Eyes on 3 November

Crude is the second negative. Two to three months ago oil had cooled to $80 and the conflict looked close to resolution; it has since taken a new turn, and Brent has moved back up. Parimal expects the US–Iran skirmishes to continue for at least another month, with neither side likely to step back before the US mid-term elections on 3 November. The market's big hope is a decisive action or a deal after that—if the conflict is resolved within one to three months of the elections, it would be a major boost for global markets and for India in particular. What India needs is straightforward: lower crude and lower US bond yields. Debt markets have already priced in two to three rate hikes.

II. India: Macro Snapshot

Nifty: Eight Straight Weeks of Losses, Yet Down Only 7–8%

The Nifty has now delivered eight consecutive weeks of negative returns. On the data Parimal cited, that has happened only twice before—in 1993 and in 2001. The difference lies in the damage. Those streaks came with falls of 24–25% over eight to nine weeks; this one is about 7–8%. The reason is domestic money. Retail investors, HNIs (High Net-worth Individuals) and mutual funds have absorbed the foreign selling almost entirely. There is no dearth of domestic capital—and that is what has held this market together.

FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) Outflows & Capital Gains Tax: Don't Waste the Brahmastra

A live debate: equity capital gains tax is driving foreign capital out, so cut it to zero and FIIs will return. Parimal seriously doubts it. Should the tax be cut? Definitely—but not now. FIIs are leaving because of relative attractiveness. South Korea, Taiwan and the US offer far stronger 12-month forward earnings growth, and are deep enough to absorb the capital leaving India in minutes. Taiwan's market is running on one company and South Korea's on two; both were at their least attractive in September 2024, and the market now sees them as a good short-term trade. A tax cut alone will not reverse that. His prescription: hold the tax lever—he called it a brahmastra—until the war cools, crude falls and the rupee stabilises, so that the relief lands with double impact. Fired now, it risks being wasted. Meanwhile the pain chain is clear: FII outflows pressure the rupee, a higher oil import bill adds to it, and the second- and third-order effects of crude will show up across industries in this quarter's results.

Inflation: WPI (Wholesale Price Index) Near Double Digits, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) Hike Likely

Wholesale inflation (WPI) has come in at almost double digits. Parimal expects a cascading impact on CPI inflation, and believes strongly that the RBI will respond by raising interest rates. Higher rates will be a negative for some time. Once that plays out, relief on income tax, corporate tax or capital gains could become a powerful catalyst. India's micro picture was in good shape before this; it is the macro—current account, rupee, inflation—that has turned.

Earnings & Valuations: Q2 FY27 Is the Test

India's attractiveness from here depends on the consistency of its earnings growth, which makes the Q2 FY27 (second quarter of financial year 2026–27) results season critical. Parimal pointed to Yadnya's recent note on the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Next 50: earnings have grown while the indices have fallen, which means P/E multiples have de-rated. Do not assume a re-rating can never happen. Markets normally bottom in pessimism—when the pessimism is at its peak.

Tax Collections: The Answer to the GDP Sceptics

To viewers questioning India's GDP numbers, Parimal offered a simple cross-check: income tax, corporate tax and advance tax collections. Companies do not pay tax on profits they have not earned. The growth is real; the challenge is external.

Indicator	Level / Growth	Signal
US Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation	3.4% vs 2% target	Further Fed hikes likely
US Fed Rate	3.75%–4.00%	Debt markets pricing two to three more hikes
US Debt / Fiscal Deficit	~$40 trillion / $1.9 trillion	Heavy bond supply; upward pressure on yields
US Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Growth	~2.2%	Firm demand keeps inflation sticky
Top 7–10 US Companies' Earnings Growth	25–35% expected	Capital prefers US equities over EM (Emerging Market)
Nifty Weekly Returns	8 straight negative weeks; down 7–8%	Domestic flows cushioning FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) selling
WPI (Wholesale Price Index) Inflation	Almost double digits	Pass-through to CPI; RBI rate hike likely
Crude Oil	Back up from $80	Import bill, rupee and margin pressure

III. Allocation & Sector Views

Global Equities: Almost Essential Now—But for the Right Reasons

Parimal's view is that some allocation to global equity has become almost essential in an asset allocation. Earlier the RBI's $7 billion limit held investors back; GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) is now opening up multiple routes, and he would not be surprised to see the RBI lift the limit as that ecosystem grows. But the purpose matters. Allocate against foreign-currency goals, or deploy surplus corpus with a genuinely long-term view. Those planning to go in for a short-term trade and bring the gains back should do the arithmetic first: banks charge 1.5–3% on currency conversion on the way out and another 1.5–2.5% on the way back, so roughly 4–6% of the return is lost to conversion alone. Check also how smoothly the money can be brought back when the goal arrives, and how smoothly it passes to a nominee. Forward earnings visibility overseas is strong, but a lot is already discounted. Diversification is a good reason to go global. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is not.

IT (Information Technology) Sector: The Contra View on AI

A narrative is building that India has no future in AI and that IT companies pay dividends instead of investing in R&D (Research & Development). Parimal's counter: look at Accenture—a US company with US management—and compare its AI spending with Google, Microsoft, Amazon or Meta. The DNA is different; these are services businesses. His contra view is that when AI is applied at mass and enterprise scale, IT services companies will play a very important role. The same obituary was written in 2016–17 when cloud arrived, and the companies that adapted best were the IT services firms themselves.

The pressures are real. Clients hold the upper hand and are asking for work at 30–40% of earlier budgets; an account manager at a large IT company told him that two-year projects are now finishing in three to four months. Efficiency has moved to a different level, and the challenge is to keep refilling the pipeline. The winners may be small and mid-sized companies more than the largest ones, given pricing pressure. As for how quickly markets can turn: Accenture guided above market estimates this week and the stock jumped over 20% intraday before settling about 15% higher. A stock that had fallen to about $128 is now above $200. And on the fear of mass job losses, his question was simple: if 20% of the people do all the work, who will consume?

IV. Investment Strategy & Behavioural Discipline

Financial Planning: The Process That Ends "What Do I Do Now?"

Parimal was unequivocal: the single most important step for managing behaviour in this market is a financial plan. His process: list your assets—equity, debt, gold, real estate—and your liabilities to arrive at net worth. Analyse cash flows (salary or business income less expenses and EMIs (Equated Monthly Instalments)) to find the monthly surplus. Put risk management in place: emergency fund, medical insurance, life cover. Define goals as short term (within three years), medium term (within five) and long term (beyond five), and quantify each at its inflation-adjusted future value. Map existing assets to those goals, then direct monthly savings through SIPs to fund the gap. Only then comes asset allocation—how much in Indian equity, gold, real estate and global equity—derived from the plan and the risk profile. Follow this and you will never be clueless about what to do next. Yet by his estimate the share of investors with a detailed plan is not even in single digits—it is "point-something percent".

Single-Digit SIP Returns: Today's Units Are Tomorrow's CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

The headlines are discouraging: five-year SIP returns in single digits, one- to two-year returns negative. Parimal's response: the units being acquired in this phase are exactly the ones that will lift your CAGR later. Pull up your XIRR (Extended Internal Rate of Return) from the Covid fall, or your SIP returns for 2010–2013, and then look at what followed three, five and seven years on. What is playing out is mean reversion. The reasonable expectation from equity is nominal GDP growth plus 100–200 bps (basis points); calendar years 2023 and 2024 delivered 30–40%, and nobody complained then. Seven- to eight-year returns are still at 13–14%. Crises also pass faster than they feel: the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) fall ran from January 2008 to March 2009, while Covid—a much bigger crisis—bottomed in a month. His line of the session: pessimism sounds intelligent in the market, but it is the optimist who makes the money.

Six Emotions to Watch in Falling Markets

Parimal walked through the six thoughts that surface in every correction, and the bias behind each. The fix for all six is the same: a process-oriented approach anchored in a financial plan.

What the Investor Says	What Is Really Going On
"No returns for two years."	Impatience
"An FD (Fixed Deposit) would have paid me more."	Outcome bias
"Let me stop the SIP."	Fear of further loss
"This fund is useless."	Recency bias; no proper comparison with peers or benchmark
"Let us buy what is rising."	FOMO and performance chasing
"I will exit now and re-enter at the right time."	Illusion of control over entry and exit

F&O (Futures & Options) vs Investing: Negative-Sum vs Positive-Sum

Retail traders have lost lakhs of crores of rupees in F&O over the last five years. The winners are institutional—proprietary books, algorithms and high-frequency traders. After brokerage and STT (Securities Transaction Tax), it is a negative-sum game in which the retail trader is the loser. Investing works differently. A company earning ₹1,000 crore at a P/E of 20 is worth ₹20,000 crore; if profit doubles to ₹2,000 crore over four to five years, the same multiple gives ₹40,000 crore. The stock has doubled because value was created, not because someone else lost.

Fund Selection: Last Year's Topper Is Not a Strategy

Several viewers complained about small-cap funds that are underperforming—funds that were first-quartile or category-best two years ago. Toppers change every year. What belongs in a portfolio is a fund that has beaten its category average and benchmark consistently over the last 10 years, checked calendar year by calendar year, before you invest. If that exercise is too stressful, use index funds—and then stop looking at whichever active fund is beating the benchmark this year.

Make It Boring, and Focus on Your Core Competence

Borrowing the line from Jab We Met, Parimal's instruction was to make this journey boring—no excitement at all. "Sometimes no action is also a good action." In 18–20 years he has seen investors reach their goals through a disciplined, process-oriented approach, without any superhuman qualities. Your core competence is your job or your business; put your energy there and earn more. He also suggested stepping away from news channels and social media arguments for two or three days—the world looks considerably better without them.

V. Live Q&A: Portfolio & Sector Views

Lump Sum: Stagger Over Six Months, Allocate by Horizon

Q: Is this a good time to invest a lump sum? If yes, where—large cap or mid cap?

A: With a financial plan in place, this question rarely arises. If you do have a lump sum, deploy it over about six months, and let the horizon decide the category: hybrid funds for 3–5 years, large cap or flexi cap for 5–7 years, large & mid cap or multi cap for 7–10 years, and pure small- and mid-cap exposure only for goals beyond 10 years. Even then, a 10-year horizon does not mean the entire corpus goes into small and mid caps. Earnings have improved most visibly in the Nifty Next 50 and mid caps; small caps cannot be generalised—it is a very large universe.

Stock Picking in a Fall: "Not Product, Process"

Q: I am continuing my SIPs and not panicking. Any suggestions for entering large-cap bank and IT stocks now?

A: This is market timing by another name—picking the theme or the stock that should work next. Parimal mentioned an investor who recently asked whether attractive valuations offered a short-term opportunity. Small bets like these can derail the entire plan; he called it a cancer for the thought process. The whole game is discipline, and that becomes obvious only after 10 years. Not product, process—product selection is one part of the process, not a substitute for it.

Leverage in a Falling Market: Absolutely Not

Q: The urge to invest more in a falling market is pushing me to borrow and invest. How do I control it?

A: Do not do it. Leverage is for life needs, and only to the extent you can repay on a planned schedule. Borrowing to buy equity is pure speculation—the same thing F&O does, where a capacity of ₹20 is stretched into a position of ₹100; when the trade goes against you the ₹20 is gone and you are asked for more. A financial plan cannot be built on taking chances. The best investment you can make is in your core competence: improve it and earn more from your job or business.

Do Retail Investors Have the Patience for SIPs?

Q: Do you really think retail investors have the patience to run SIPs and wait for years?

A: They will have to—impatience achieves nothing. Parimal has seen investors break the process, and many of them return after realising the mistake. He has also seen the goals get met: down payments funded through SIPs, children's education paid for through 8–10-year SIPs. One recent case: a family planned a ₹25 lakh corpus for an engineering education; the corpus stands at ₹40 lakh, and after paying the first-year fee, ₹35 lakh is still intact. Patience will not arrive on its own, he conceded. Building it is the job—which is why the same message gets repeated every Friday.

"Five to Seven Years" Is Not a Guarantee

Q: Some investors say even 5–7 year returns are poor. Why assume that staying invested for 5–7 years guarantees good returns? Only the probability improves.

A: Correct, and Parimal agreed fully. The problem is that many investors enter equity after looking at trailing returns, and then find it very hard to manage their behaviour when those returns do not repeat. Add the many voices on social media with full marketing and zero accountability, and the confusion multiplies—investors are now getting confused by comment sections, not just videos. With extra reach comes extra responsibility.

International Funds: Why SIPs Are Being Stopped

Q: Why are international mutual funds stopping SIPs?

A: Because of the overseas investment limit. With GIFT City developing more options, including retail ones, that appears to be the route being built for global investing.

Hospitals: Regulatory Overhang Until the Government Decides

Q: What is your view on the hospital sector?

A: The ball is in the government's court. The question is whether price capping comes in and, if it does, at what level. Yadnya has released a note on the sector and is watching it closely; for now the stance is wait and watch. Until there is clarity, the regulatory risk overhang stays.

Real Estate: Exiting an Investment Flat at a Loss

Q: I bought a flat as an investment and it has not appreciated. I have an offer at a loss of ₹2–3 lakh. What should I do?

A: It is a demand-supply equation, and supply is probably high in that market. Judge the loss against the base. If ₹2–3 lakh is under 10% of the value—say on a ₹70–80 lakh flat—and you have been trying to sell for a year, it makes sense to exit. If the loss is a large share of the base, it is a bigger number and needs a more careful call.

Parimal's Own Money: SIPs Yes, Direct Stocks No

Q: Do you still invest through SIPs, or in stocks?

A: No direct stocks. Trading windows are available, but as research analysts the team has taken a conscious call to avoid any bias. The SIPs continue without interruption.

VI. Key Takeaways

1. US bond yields are the primary pressure on Indian markets. Core inflation at 3.4% against a 2% target, a Fed rate of 3.75%–4.00% with two to three more hikes priced in, and a $1.9 trillion deficit on roughly $40 trillion of debt are all pushing yields up. With a US government bond available at about 20 times—the same multiple as Indian equities—EM flows stay under pressure until yields ease.

2. FIIs are chasing relative earnings growth, not tax breaks. The top US companies offer 25–35% earnings growth, and Taiwan and South Korea are running on a handful of companies with strong forward earnings. A capital gains tax cut is worth doing—but only once crude, the rupee and the war settle, so that it lands with double impact.

3. Domestic money is India's cushion. Eight straight negative weeks for the Nifty has precedent only in 1993 and 2001, yet the fall is 7–8% against 24–25% then. The near-term watch list: WPI inflation near double digits, a likely RBI rate hike, crude, and the Q2 FY27 results.

4. Global equity belongs in an asset allocation for diversification, foreign-currency goals and long-term surplus—not as a short-term trade, where 4–6% is lost to currency conversion alone. On Indian IT, the contra view holds: services companies will play a very important role when AI is applied at enterprise scale.

5. Single-digit SIP returns are mean reversion after two years of 30–40% gains, not a failure of the method. Seven- to eight-year returns remain at 13–14%, and the units bought in this phase are the ones that lift future CAGR. Do not stop the SIP.

6. A financial plan is the fix for all six emotions of a falling market—impatience, outcome bias, fear of further loss, recency bias, FOMO and the illusion of control. Assets, cash flows, risk cover, quantified goals, then asset allocation. In that order.

7. No leverage, no F&O, no chasing last year's topper. Make the journey boring, and put your energy into your core competence. Pessimism sounds intelligent, but it is the optimist who makes the money—and sometimes no action is also a good action.

— End of Session Notes —